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Doma United vs Kwara United — NPFL 2019

Doma United
Doma United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kwara United
Kwara United
4/27/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 32Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Doma United56%
×Draw30%
Kwara United14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doma United
1.27
Kwara United
0.48

Doma United creates 165% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 128 away

creates per match

Doma United
1.00
Kwara United
0.58

allows per match

Doma United
0.39
Kwara United
1.55

finishing

Doma United+0.00on par
Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doma United ↓

Kwara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Doma United or draw
86%
Doma United or Kwara United
70%
Draw or Kwara United
44%

Winning margin

Doma United wins by 2+
27%
Kwara United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Doma United 1+ goals
72%
Doma United 2+ goals
36%
Doma United 3+ goals
14%
Kwara United 1+ goals
38%
Kwara United 2+ goals
8%
Kwara United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Doma United (draw refunded)
80%
Kwara United (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doma United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.39 · 28 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doma United attack 1.00 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kwara United attack 0.58 + Doma United defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Doma United scores more
56%
level
30%
Kwara United scores more
14%

Doma United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Doma United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Doma United 0–0 Kwara United

Doma United and Kwara United drew 0-0 in NPFL on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.