Kwara United vs Bayelsa United — NPFL 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 66+ matches
Kwara United59%
Bayelsa United14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kwara United creates 164% more chances
Season form · 127 home / 66 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No69
- Yes31
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kwara United ↓
Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches
Bayelsa United away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.41 · 66 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kwara United attack 1.39 + Bayelsa United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40
Bayelsa United attack 0.61 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.53
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 59%?"
Kwara United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 59% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
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Plateau UnitedKwara United
Enyimba
Kun Khalifat FC
Warri Wolves
Niger Tornadoes
Remo Stars
El Kanemi WarriorsBayelsa United
Wikki TouristIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kwara United host Bayelsa United on Saturday, 15 February 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the NPFL 2019/2020 season.
NPFL: Kwara United 1–0 Bayelsa United
Kwara United beat Bayelsa United 1-0 in NPFL on February 15, 2025.
The match was played at Kwara Sports Complex in Ilorin.