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Bayelsa United vs Kwara United — NPFL 2019

Bayelsa United
Bayelsa United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kwara United
Kwara United
9/29/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 4Samson Siasia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bayelsa United59%
×Draw25%
Kwara United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayelsa United
1.60
Kwara United
0.71

Bayelsa United creates 125% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 128 away

creates per match

Bayelsa United
1.65
Kwara United
0.58

allows per match

Bayelsa United
0.85
Kwara United
1.55

finishing

Bayelsa United+0.00on par
Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayelsa United ↓

Kwara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bayelsa United or draw
84%
Bayelsa United or Kwara United
75%
Draw or Kwara United
41%

Winning margin

Bayelsa United wins by 2+
32%
Kwara United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bayelsa United 1+ goals
80%
Bayelsa United 2+ goals
47%
Bayelsa United 3+ goals
22%
Kwara United 1+ goals
51%
Kwara United 2+ goals
16%
Kwara United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bayelsa United (draw refunded)
78%
Kwara United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayelsa United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.85 · 66 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayelsa United attack 1.65 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kwara United attack 0.58 + Bayelsa United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bayelsa United scores more
59%
level
25%
Kwara United scores more
16%

Bayelsa United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bayelsa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bayelsa United vs Kwara United

Bayelsa United and Kwara United drew 1-1 in NPFL on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Samson Siasia Stadium in Yenagoa.