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Kvik Trondheim vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Kvik Trondheim
Kvik Trondheim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
9/15/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 20Rosenborg Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kvik Trondheim51%
×Draw21%
Kristiansund II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvik Trondheim
2.05
Kristiansund II
1.45

Kvik Trondheim creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kvik Trondheim
1.65
Kristiansund II
1.00

allows per match

Kvik Trondheim
1.90
Kristiansund II
2.46

finishing

Kvik Trondheim+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Trondheim ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kvik Trondheim or draw
73%
Kvik Trondheim or Kristiansund II
79%
Draw or Kristiansund II
49%

Winning margin

Kvik Trondheim wins by 2+
30%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kvik Trondheim 1+ goals
87%
Kvik Trondheim 2+ goals
61%
Kvik Trondheim 3+ goals
33%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
77%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
42%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kvik Trondheim (draw refunded)
65%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Trondheim at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Trondheim attack 1.65 + Kristiansund II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.05

Kristiansund II attack 1.00 + Kvik Trondheim defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kvik Trondheim scores more
51%
level
21%
Kristiansund II scores more
27%

Kvik Trondheim at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kvik Trondheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Kvik Trondheim 0–0 Kristiansund II

Kvik Trondheim and Kristiansund II drew 0-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on September 15, 2025.

The match was played at Rosenborg Kunstgress in Trondheim.