Kristiansund II 0–3 Kvik Trondheim: Result & Stats

Kristiansund II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Kvik Trondheim

6/9/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 9Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kristiansund II26%

×Draw23%

Kvik Trondheim51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund IIExpected goals in this matchKvik Trondheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.85

Kristiansund II

1.25

Kvik Trondheim

1.85

Kvik Trondheim creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

0.54

creates per match

1.63

2.08

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Kristiansund II

0.54

Kvik Trondheim

1.63

allows per match

Kristiansund II

2.08

Kvik Trondheim

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Kvik Trondheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund II ↓

Kvik Trondheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kristiansund II or draw

49%

Kristiansund II or Kvik Trondheim

77%

Draw or Kvik Trondheim

74%

Winning margin

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

11%

Kvik Trondheim wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

71%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

36%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

13%

Kvik Trondheim 1+ goals

84%

Kvik Trondheim 2+ goals

55%

Kvik Trondheim 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

34%

Kvik Trondheim (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund II at home — creates 0.54, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Kvik Trondheim away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund II attack 0.54 + Kvik Trondheim defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kvik Trondheim attack 1.63 + Kristiansund II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kristiansund II scores more

26%

level

23%

Kvik Trondheim scores more

51%

Kvik Trondheim at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kvik Trondheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff