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Kvik Halden vs Floro — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Kvik Halden
Kvik Halden
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Floro
Floro
7/18/20202. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kvik Halden60%
×Draw20%
Floro20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvik Halden
2.23
Floro
1.20

Kvik Halden creates 86% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kvik Halden
1.85
Floro
1.20

allows per match

Kvik Halden
1.20
Floro
2.60

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw
80%
Kvik Halden or Floro
80%
Draw or Floro
40%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+
38%
Floro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals
89%
Kvik Halden 2+ goals
65%
Kvik Halden 3+ goals
38%
Floro 1+ goals
70%
Floro 2+ goals
34%
Floro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)
75%
Floro (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

Floro away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.85 + Floro defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Floro attack 1.20 + Kvik Halden defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kvik Halden scores more
60%
level
20%
Floro scores more
20%

Kvik Halden at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 1: Kvik Halden 2–1 Floro

Kvik Halden beat Floro 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on July 18, 2020.

The match was played at Halden Stadion in Halden.