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Floro vs Kvik Halden — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Floro
Floro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kvik Halden
Kvik Halden
6/26/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Florø stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Floro40%
×Draw22%
Kvik Halden38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floro
1.86
Kvik Halden
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 65 away

creates per match

Floro
1.63
Kvik Halden
1.71

allows per match

Floro
1.89
Kvik Halden
2.09

finishing

Floro+0.00on par
Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floro ↓

Kvik Halden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Floro or draw
62%
Floro or Kvik Halden
78%
Draw or Kvik Halden
60%

Winning margin

Floro wins by 2+
21%
Kvik Halden wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Floro 1+ goals
84%
Floro 2+ goals
55%
Floro 3+ goals
28%
Kvik Halden 1+ goals
83%
Kvik Halden 2+ goals
54%
Kvik Halden 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Floro (draw refunded)
52%
Kvik Halden (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floro at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Kvik Halden away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.09 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floro attack 1.63 + Kvik Halden defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kvik Halden attack 1.71 + Floro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Floro scores more
40%
level
22%
Kvik Halden scores more
38%

Floro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Floro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Floro vs Kvik Halden

Kvik Halden beat Floro 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Florø stadion in Florø.