KVC Westerlo 1–1 KV Mechelen: Result & Stats

KVC Westerlo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

KV Mechelen

12/20/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 19Het Kuipje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

KVC Westerlo50%

×Draw23%

KV Mechelen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KVC WesterloExpected goals in this matchKV Mechelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.27

KVC Westerlo

1.79

KV Mechelen

1.27

KVC Westerlo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

1.71

creates per match

1.10

1.43

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

KVC Westerlo

1.71

KV Mechelen

1.10

allows per match

KVC Westerlo

1.43

KV Mechelen

1.88

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

KVC Westerlo-0.29scores less

KV Mechelen+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

KV Mechelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw

73%

KVC Westerlo or KV Mechelen

77%

Draw or KV Mechelen

50%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+

27%

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals

83%

KVC Westerlo 2+ goals

53%

KVC Westerlo 3+ goals

26%

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

72%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

36%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)

65%

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 26 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 1.71 + KV Mechelen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

KV Mechelen attack 1.10 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more

50%

level

23%

KV Mechelen scores more

27%

KVC Westerlo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff