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KV Mechelen vs KVC Westerlo — Jupiler Pro League 2018

KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
4/22/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 5AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

KV Mechelen42%
×Draw23%
KVC Westerlo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KV Mechelen
1.68
KVC Westerlo
1.50

KV Mechelen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

creates per match

KV Mechelen
1.35
KVC Westerlo
1.42

allows per match

KV Mechelen
1.59
KVC Westerlo
2.01

finishing

KV Mechelen+0.03on par
KVC Westerlo-0.14scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

KVC Westerlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw
66%
KV Mechelen or KVC Westerlo
77%
Draw or KVC Westerlo
58%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+
22%
KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals
81%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
50%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
24%
KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
78%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
44%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
55%
KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.01 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.35 + KVC Westerlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.68

KVC Westerlo attack 1.42 + KV Mechelen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KV Mechelen scores more
42%
level
23%
KVC Westerlo scores more
34%

KV Mechelen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: KV Mechelen 2–3 KVC Westerlo

KVC Westerlo beat KV Mechelen 3-2 in Jupiler Pro League on April 22, 2025.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Malines.