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Kvasice vs Kostelec na Hané — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Kvasice
Kvasice
CANC
00:00
Kostelec na Hané
Kostelec na Hané
6/1/20254. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 28Stadion Kvasice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kvasice57%
×Draw21%
Kostelec na Hané23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvasice
2.13
Kostelec na Hané
1.28

Kvasice creates 66% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kvasice
2.14
Kostelec na Hané
0.93

allows per match

Kvasice
1.64
Kostelec na Hané
2.13

finishing

Kvasice+0.00on par
Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvasice ↓

Kostelec na Hané →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kvasice or draw
77%
Kvasice or Kostelec na Hané
79%
Draw or Kostelec na Hané
43%

Winning margin

Kvasice wins by 2+
34%
Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kvasice 1+ goals
88%
Kvasice 2+ goals
63%
Kvasice 3+ goals
35%
Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals
72%
Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals
37%
Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kvasice (draw refunded)
71%
Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvasice at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Kostelec na Hané away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvasice attack 2.14 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kostelec na Hané attack 0.93 + Kvasice defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kvasice scores more
57%
level
21%
Kostelec na Hané scores more
23%

Kvasice at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kvasice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kvasice host Kostelec na Hané

June 1, 2025: Kvasice take on Kostelec na Hané in 4. liga - Divizie E. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kvasice host Kostelec na Hané at Stadion Kvasice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.