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Kostelec na Hané vs Kvasice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Kostelec na Hané
Kostelec na Hané
CANC
12:30
Kvasice
Kvasice
10/27/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 13Hrište Kostelec na Hané

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kostelec na Hané40%
×Draw22%
Kvasice38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostelec na Hané
1.77
Kvasice
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kostelec na Hané
1.67
Kvasice
1.14

allows per match

Kostelec na Hané
2.33
Kvasice
1.86

finishing

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par
Kvasice+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostelec na Hané ↓

Kvasice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kostelec na Hané or draw
62%
Kostelec na Hané or Kvasice
78%
Draw or Kvasice
60%

Winning margin

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+
21%
Kvasice wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals
83%
Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals
53%
Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals
26%
Kvasice 1+ goals
82%
Kvasice 2+ goals
52%
Kvasice 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)
51%
Kvasice (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostelec na Hané at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Kvasice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostelec na Hané attack 1.67 + Kvasice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kvasice attack 1.14 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kostelec na Hané scores more
40%
level
22%
Kvasice scores more
38%

Kostelec na Hané at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kostelec na Hané will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kostelec na Hané vs Kvasice — Match Preview

Kostelec na Hané face Kvasice on October 27, 2024 in this 4. liga - Divizie E fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kostelec na Hané host Kvasice at Hrište Kostelec na Hané.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.