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KV Mechelen vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Oostende
Oostende
9/12/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 5AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

KV Mechelen49%
×Draw24%
Oostende27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KV Mechelen
1.75
Oostende
1.23

KV Mechelen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 86 away

creates per match

KV Mechelen
1.72
Oostende
1.02

allows per match

KV Mechelen
1.43
Oostende
1.79

finishing

KV Mechelen+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw
73%
KV Mechelen or Oostende
76%
Draw or Oostende
51%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+
27%
Oostende wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals
83%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
52%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
25%
Oostende 1+ goals
71%
Oostende 2+ goals
35%
Oostende 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
65%
Oostende (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.43 · 133 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.72 + Oostende defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

Oostende attack 1.02 + KV Mechelen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KV Mechelen scores more
49%
level
24%
Oostende scores more
27%

KV Mechelen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KV Mechelen vs Oostende

Oostende beat KV Mechelen 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne in Malines.