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KV Mechelen vs Beerschot VA — Jupiler Pro League 2018

KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
2/6/2022Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 26AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

KV Mechelen55%
×Draw22%
Beerschot VA24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KV Mechelen
2.01
Beerschot VA
1.25

KV Mechelen creates 61% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 54 away

creates per match

KV Mechelen
1.73
Beerschot VA
1.07

allows per match

KV Mechelen
1.42
Beerschot VA
2.30

finishing

KV Mechelen+0.00on par
Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw
76%
KV Mechelen or Beerschot VA
78%
Draw or Beerschot VA
45%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+
32%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals
87%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
59%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
32%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
71%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
36%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
70%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.73 + Beerschot VA defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.01

Beerschot VA attack 1.07 + KV Mechelen defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

KV Mechelen scores more
55%
level
22%
Beerschot VA scores more
24%

KV Mechelen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KV Mechelen vs Beerschot VA

KV Mechelen beat Beerschot VA 3-2 in Jupiler Pro League on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne in Malines.