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Beerschot VA vs KV Mechelen — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
10/17/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 11Olympisch Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Beerschot VA39%
×Draw24%
KV Mechelen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beerschot VA
1.54
KV Mechelen
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 130 away

creates per match

Beerschot VA
1.36
KV Mechelen
1.25

allows per match

Beerschot VA
1.74
KV Mechelen
1.72

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par
KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw
63%
Beerschot VA or KV Mechelen
76%
Draw or KV Mechelen
61%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+
19%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals
79%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
45%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
20%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
78%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
44%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
51%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.36 + KV Mechelen defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

KV Mechelen attack 1.25 + Beerschot VA defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beerschot VA scores more
39%
level
24%
KV Mechelen scores more
37%

Beerschot VA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beerschot VA vs KV Mechelen

KV Mechelen beat Beerschot VA 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Olympisch Stadion in Anvers.