KV Mechelen 2–3 Beerschot VA: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Beerschot VA

A. Mboko 44' (OG)

F. Frans 21' (OG)

I. Coulibaly 80'

J. Van den Bergh 69'

T. Tissoudali 13'

11/29/2020

Jupiler Pro League · Round 14AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

KV Mechelen48%

×Draw25%

Beerschot VA28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchBeerschot VA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.18

KV Mechelen

1.63

Beerschot VA

1.18

KV Mechelen creates 38% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

1.35

creates per match

0.77

1.59

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.35

Beerschot VA

0.77

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.59

Beerschot VA

1.91

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

KV Mechelen+0.03on par

Beerschot VA+0.09on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Beerschot VA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

72%

KV Mechelen or Beerschot VA

75%

Draw or Beerschot VA

52%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

25%

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

80%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

48%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

22%

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

69%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

33%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

63%

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.35 + Beerschot VA defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.63

Beerschot VA attack 0.77 + KV Mechelen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

48%

level

25%

Beerschot VA scores more

28%

KV Mechelen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

T. Tissoudali

18'

Ismaila Cheick Coulibaly

21'

F. FransOwn goal

39'

Jordi Vanlerberghe

42'

Tom Pietermaat

44'

A. MbokoOwn goal

58'

Aster Vranckx

67'

Nikola Storm

68'

Geoffry Hairemans

69'

J. Van den Bergh↳ R. Holzhauser

73'

Rob Schoofs

74'

B. Eleke← T. Tissoudali

76'

T. Peyre← K. Mrabti

80'

I. Coulibaly↳ J. Van den Bergh

81'

A. Sanyang← A. Mboko

85'

W. Togui← S. Voet

85'

O. Kaya← R. Schoofs

86'

D. Van den Buijs← Y. Vorogovskiy

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KVBeerschot

Overview

65%Possession35%

9Total Shots7

3Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots7

3On Target5

6Off Target2

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2