Kuya Sport 1–2 Anges Verts: Result & Stats

Kuya Sport

FT

1 – 2

Anges Verts

3/19/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kuya Sport50%

×Draw26%

Anges Verts23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuya SportExpected goals in this matchAnges Verts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.91

Kuya Sport

1.47

Anges Verts

0.91

Kuya Sport creates 62% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

1.11

creates per match

0.63

1.19

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Kuya Sport

1.11

Anges Verts

0.63

allows per match

Kuya Sport

1.19

Anges Verts

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuya Sport+0.00on par

Anges Verts+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuya Sport ↓

Anges Verts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kuya Sport or draw

77%

Kuya Sport or Anges Verts

74%

Draw or Anges Verts

50%

Winning margin

Kuya Sport wins by 2+

25%

Anges Verts wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kuya Sport 1+ goals

77%

Kuya Sport 2+ goals

43%

Kuya Sport 3+ goals

18%

Anges Verts 1+ goals

60%

Anges Verts 2+ goals

23%

Anges Verts 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kuya Sport (draw refunded)

68%

Anges Verts (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuya Sport at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Anges Verts away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuya Sport attack 1.11 + Anges Verts defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.47

Anges Verts attack 0.63 + Kuya Sport defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kuya Sport scores more

50%

level

26%

Anges Verts scores more

23%

Kuya Sport at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kuya Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff