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Anges Verts vs Kuya Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Anges Verts
Anges Verts
FT
0 – 0
Kuya Sport
Kuya Sport
11/27/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Anges Verts43%
×Draw27%
Kuya Sport30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anges Verts
1.38
Kuya Sport
1.09

Anges Verts creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

creates per match

Anges Verts
1.16
Kuya Sport
0.71

allows per match

Anges Verts
1.48
Kuya Sport
1.60

finishing

Anges Verts+0.00on par
Kuya Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anges Verts ↓

Kuya Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Anges Verts or draw
70%
Anges Verts or Kuya Sport
73%
Draw or Kuya Sport
57%

Winning margin

Anges Verts wins by 2+
21%
Kuya Sport wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Anges Verts 1+ goals
75%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
40%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
16%
Kuya Sport 1+ goals
66%
Kuya Sport 2+ goals
30%
Kuya Sport 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Anges Verts (draw refunded)
59%
Kuya Sport (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anges Verts at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Kuya Sport away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anges Verts attack 1.16 + Kuya Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kuya Sport attack 0.71 + Anges Verts defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Anges Verts scores more
43%
level
27%
Kuya Sport scores more
30%

Anges Verts at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Anges Verts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anges Verts vs Kuya Sport

Anges Verts and Kuya Sport drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on November 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Tata Raphaël in Kinshasa.