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Kutno vs ŁKS Łódź II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Kutno
Kutno
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
3/19/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kutno35%
×Draw25%
ŁKS Łódź II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kutno
1.41
ŁKS Łódź II
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kutno
1.53
ŁKS Łódź II
1.66

allows per match

Kutno
1.41
ŁKS Łódź II
1.29

finishing

Kutno+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kutno ↓

ŁKS Łódź II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kutno or draw
60%
Kutno or ŁKS Łódź II
75%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź II
65%

Winning margin

Kutno wins by 2+
16%
ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kutno 1+ goals
76%
Kutno 2+ goals
41%
Kutno 3+ goals
17%
ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
78%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
45%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kutno (draw refunded)
46%
ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kutno at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

ŁKS Łódź II away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kutno attack 1.53 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.66 + Kutno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kutno scores more
35%
level
25%
ŁKS Łódź II scores more
40%

ŁKS Łódź II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kutno vs ŁKS Łódź II

ŁKS Łódź II beat Kutno 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Kutno.