Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ŁKS Łódź II vs Kutno — III Liga - Group 1 2020

ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
FT
2 – 1
Kutno
Kutno
8/17/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Akademia ŁKS Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II52%
×Draw22%
Kutno27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź II
2.03
Kutno
1.41

ŁKS Łódź II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II
2.31
Kutno
1.44

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.37
Kutno
1.75

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par
Kutno+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Kutno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw
73%
ŁKS Łódź II or Kutno
78%
Draw or Kutno
48%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
30%
Kutno wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
87%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
60%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
33%
Kutno 1+ goals
76%
Kutno 2+ goals
41%
Kutno 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
66%
Kutno (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Kutno away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 2.31 + Kutno defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.03

Kutno attack 1.44 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more
52%
level
22%
Kutno scores more
27%

ŁKS Łódź II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź II vs Kutno

ŁKS Łódź II beat Kutno 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 17, 2021.

The match was played at Akademia ŁKS Łódź in Łódź.