Kutno 1–0 Jagiellonia II: Result & Stats

Kutno

FT

1 – 0

Jagiellonia II

9/25/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kutno41%

×Draw24%

Jagiellonia II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KutnoExpected goals in this matchJagiellonia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.44

Kutno

1.60

Jagiellonia II

1.44

Kutno creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

1.53

creates per match

1.48

1.41

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Kutno

1.53

Jagiellonia II

1.48

allows per match

Kutno

1.41

Jagiellonia II

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kutno+0.00on par

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kutno ↓

Jagiellonia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kutno or draw

66%

Kutno or Jagiellonia II

76%

Draw or Jagiellonia II

59%

Winning margin

Kutno wins by 2+

21%

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kutno 1+ goals

80%

Kutno 2+ goals

47%

Kutno 3+ goals

22%

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals

76%

Jagiellonia II 2+ goals

42%

Jagiellonia II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kutno (draw refunded)

55%

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kutno at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kutno attack 1.53 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Kutno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kutno scores more

41%

level

24%

Jagiellonia II scores more

34%

Kutno at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kutno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff