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Jagiellonia II vs Kutno — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
FT
1 – 0
Kutno
Kutno
9/5/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jagiellonia II44%
×Draw23%
Kutno33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia II
1.75
Kutno
1.48

Jagiellonia II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 36 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia II
1.76
Kutno
1.44

allows per match

Jagiellonia II
1.53
Kutno
1.75

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par
Kutno+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Kutno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw
67%
Jagiellonia II or Kutno
77%
Draw or Kutno
56%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
23%
Kutno wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
83%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
52%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
25%
Kutno 1+ goals
77%
Kutno 2+ goals
43%
Kutno 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
57%
Kutno (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Kutno away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Kutno defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kutno attack 1.44 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more
44%
level
23%
Kutno scores more
33%

Jagiellonia II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia II vs Kutno

Jagiellonia II beat Kutno 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok in Białystok.