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Kutno vs Broń Radom — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Kutno
Kutno
FT
1 – 3
Broń Radom
Broń Radom
8/7/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kutno47%
×Draw24%
Broń Radom29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kutno
1.70
Broń Radom
1.29

Kutno creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

creates per match

Kutno
1.53
Broń Radom
1.17

allows per match

Kutno
1.41
Broń Radom
1.87

finishing

Kutno+0.00on par
Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kutno ↓

Broń Radom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kutno or draw
71%
Kutno or Broń Radom
76%
Draw or Broń Radom
53%

Winning margin

Kutno wins by 2+
25%
Broń Radom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kutno 1+ goals
82%
Kutno 2+ goals
51%
Kutno 3+ goals
24%
Broń Radom 1+ goals
72%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
37%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kutno (draw refunded)
62%
Broń Radom (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kutno at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kutno attack 1.53 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.70

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Kutno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kutno scores more
47%
level
24%
Broń Radom scores more
29%

Kutno at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kutno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kutno vs Broń Radom

Broń Radom beat Kutno 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Kutno.