Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Broń Radom vs Kutno — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Broń Radom
Broń Radom
FT
4 – 1
Kutno
Kutno
11/26/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Boisko sztuczne Narutowicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Broń Radom44%
×Draw24%
Kutno32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broń Radom
1.61
Kutno
1.34

Broń Radom creates 20% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 36 away

creates per match

Broń Radom
1.48
Kutno
1.44

allows per match

Broń Radom
1.25
Kutno
1.75

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par
Kutno+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Kutno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw
68%
Broń Radom or Kutno
76%
Draw or Kutno
56%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+
22%
Kutno wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals
80%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
48%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
22%
Kutno 1+ goals
74%
Kutno 2+ goals
39%
Kutno 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)
58%
Kutno (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Kutno away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Kutno defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kutno attack 1.44 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Broń Radom scores more
44%
level
24%
Kutno scores more
32%

Broń Radom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Broń Radom 4–1 Kutno

Broń Radom beat Kutno 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 26, 2021.

The match was played at Boisko sztuczne Narutowicza in Radom.