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Kustosija vs Krk — Second NL 2022

Kustosija
Kustosija
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krk
Krk
I. Mihaljevic 90', 65'
D. Lovren 73'
9/30/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 7Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kustosija63%
×Draw23%
Krk14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kustosija
1.75
Krk
0.67

Kustosija creates 161% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kustosija
1.93
Krk
0.63

allows per match

Kustosija
0.71
Krk
1.56

finishing

Kustosija+0.00on par
Krk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kustosija ↓

Krk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kustosija or draw
86%
Kustosija or Krk
77%
Draw or Krk
37%

Winning margin

Kustosija wins by 2+
37%
Krk wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kustosija 1+ goals
83%
Kustosija 2+ goals
52%
Kustosija 3+ goals
25%
Krk 1+ goals
49%
Krk 2+ goals
15%
Krk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kustosija (draw refunded)
82%
Krk (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kustosija at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Krk away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kustosija attack 1.93 + Krk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Krk attack 0.63 + Kustosija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kustosija scores more
63%
level
23%
Krk scores more
14%

Kustosija at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
I. Mihaljevic
73'
D. Lovren
90'
I. Mihaljevic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Kustosija 3–0 Krk

Kustosija beat Krk 3-0 in Second NL on September 30, 2023.

Goals: I. Mihaljevic (65', 90'), D. Lovren (73').

The match was played at Igralište NK Kustošija in Zagreb.