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Krk vs Kustosija — Second NL 2022

Krk
Krk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kustosija
Kustosija
4/6/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 22SRC Josip Uravić Pepi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krk28%
×Draw25%
Kustosija46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krk
1.15
Kustosija
1.54

Kustosija creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Krk
1.06
Kustosija
1.78

allows per match

Krk
1.31
Kustosija
1.24

finishing

Krk+0.00on par
Kustosija+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krk ↓

Kustosija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Krk or draw
54%
Krk or Kustosija
75%
Draw or Kustosija
72%

Winning margin

Krk wins by 2+
11%
Kustosija wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Krk 1+ goals
68%
Krk 2+ goals
32%
Krk 3+ goals
11%
Kustosija 1+ goals
79%
Kustosija 2+ goals
45%
Kustosija 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Krk (draw refunded)
38%
Kustosija (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krk at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Kustosija away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krk attack 1.06 + Kustosija defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kustosija attack 1.78 + Krk defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Krk scores more
28%
level
25%
Kustosija scores more
46%

Kustosija at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krk vs Kustosija

Kustosija beat Krk 2-0 in Second NL on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at SRC Josip Uravić Pepi in Krk.