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Kustosija vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Kustosija
Kustosija
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
I. Mihaljevic 90+4'
F. Petkovic 88'
J. Markelo 45+1'
M. Guja 32'
M. Ivetic 89'
N. Gavric 30'
5/10/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 27Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kustosija70%
×Draw18%
Jadran Poreč12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kustosija
2.33
Jadran Poreč
0.85

Kustosija creates 174% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kustosija
1.93
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Kustosija
0.71
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Kustosija+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kustosija ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kustosija or draw
88%
Kustosija or Jadran Poreč
82%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
30%

Winning margin

Kustosija wins by 2+
47%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kustosija 1+ goals
90%
Kustosija 2+ goals
67%
Kustosija 3+ goals
41%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
57%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
21%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kustosija (draw refunded)
85%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kustosija at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kustosija attack 1.93 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.33

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Kustosija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kustosija scores more
70%
level
18%
Jadran Poreč scores more
12%

Kustosija at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
N. Gavric
32'
M. Guja
45+1'
J. Markelo
88'
F. Petkovic
89'
M. Ivetic
90+4'
I. Mihaljevic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Kustosija 4–2 Jadran Poreč

Kustosija beat Jadran Poreč 4-2 in Second NL on May 10, 2024.

Goals: N. Gavric (30'), M. Guja (32'), J. Markelo (45+1'), F. Petkovic (88'), M. Ivetic (89'), I. Mihaljevic (90+4').

The match was played at Igralište NK Kustošija in Zagreb.