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Jadran Poreč vs Kustosija — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Kustosija
Kustosija
I. Al Tharwan 83' (pen)
B. Akinola Jabita 65'
B. Miklos 61'
F. Sverko 34'
M. Guja 90', 30'
M. Sroler 76' (pen)
D. Ravlic 43' (pen)
8/31/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 2Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran Poreč31%
×Draw24%
Kustosija45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.36
Kustosija
1.67

Kustosija creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Kustosija
1.78

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Kustosija
1.24

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Kustosija+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Kustosija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
55%
Jadran Poreč or Kustosija
76%
Draw or Kustosija
69%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
14%
Kustosija wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
74%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
39%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
16%
Kustosija 1+ goals
81%
Kustosija 2+ goals
50%
Kustosija 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
41%
Kustosija (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Kustosija away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Kustosija defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kustosija attack 1.78 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
31%
level
24%
Kustosija scores more
45%

Kustosija at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
M. Guja
34'
F. Sverko
43'
D. RavlicPenalty
61'
B. Miklos
65'
B. Akinola Jabita
76'
M. SrolerPenalty
83'
I. Al TharwanPenalty
90'
M. Guja

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jadran Poreč 4 – 4 Kustosija

Jadran Poreč and Kustosija drew 4-4 in Second NL on August 31, 2024.

Goals: M. Guja (30', 90'), F. Sverko (34'), D. Ravlic (43' pen), B. Miklos (61'), B. Akinola Jabita (65'), M. Sroler (76' pen), I. Al Tharwan (83' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.