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Kustosija vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac — Second NL 2022

Kustosija
Kustosija
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
3/1/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 17Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kustosija61%
×Draw22%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kustosija
1.86
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
0.86

Kustosija creates 116% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kustosija
1.93
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.02

allows per match

Kustosija
0.71
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.80

finishing

Kustosija+0.00on par
Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kustosija ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kustosija or draw
83%
Kustosija or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
78%
Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
39%

Winning margin

Kustosija wins by 2+
36%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kustosija 1+ goals
84%
Kustosija 2+ goals
55%
Kustosija 3+ goals
28%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
58%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
21%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kustosija (draw refunded)
78%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kustosija at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kustosija attack 1.93 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.86

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.02 + Kustosija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kustosija scores more
61%
level
22%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
17%

Kustosija at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Kustosija 3–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Kustosija beat Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3-0 in Second NL on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Igralište NK Kustošija in Zagreb.