Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2–1 Kustosija: Result & Stats

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kustosija

5/16/2025

Second NL · Round 28Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac30%

×Draw25%

Kustosija44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski DragovoljacExpected goals in this matchKustosija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.54

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.23

Kustosija

1.54

Kustosija creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.22

creates per match

1.78

1.31

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.22

Kustosija

1.78

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.31

Kustosija

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Kustosija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Kustosija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw

56%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Kustosija

75%

Draw or Kustosija

70%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

13%

Kustosija wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

71%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

35%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

13%

Kustosija 1+ goals

79%

Kustosija 2+ goals

45%

Kustosija 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

41%

Kustosija (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Kustosija away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.22 + Kustosija defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kustosija attack 1.78 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

30%

level

25%

Kustosija scores more

44%

Kustosija at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff