Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kuressaare II vs JK Tabasalu — Esiliiga B 2026

Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
4/6/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 5Kuressaare Linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Kuressaare II34%
×Draw21%
JK Tabasalu45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuressaare II
1.83
JK Tabasalu
2.10

JK Tabasalu creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kuressaare II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
1.82

allows per match

Kuressaare II
2.39
JK Tabasalu
2.36

finishing

Kuressaare II+0.00on par
JK Tabasalu+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuressaare II ↓

JK Tabasalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kuressaare II or draw
55%
Kuressaare II or JK Tabasalu
79%
Draw or JK Tabasalu
66%

Winning margin

Kuressaare II wins by 2+
18%
JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kuressaare II 1+ goals
84%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
54%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
28%
JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
88%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
62%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
44%
JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuressaare II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.39 · 36 matches

JK Tabasalu away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuressaare II attack 1.31 + JK Tabasalu defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.83

JK Tabasalu attack 1.82 + Kuressaare II defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kuressaare II scores more
34%
level
21%
JK Tabasalu scores more
45%

JK Tabasalu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuressaare II vs JK Tabasalu

Kuressaare II beat JK Tabasalu 3-2 in Esiliiga B on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Kuressaare Linnastaadion in Kuressaare.