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JK Tabasalu vs Kuressaare II — Esiliiga B 2026

JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
8/21/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 25Tabasalu Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

JK Tabasalu45%
×Draw21%
Kuressaare II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JK Tabasalu
2.06
Kuressaare II
1.76

JK Tabasalu creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 36 away

creates per match

JK Tabasalu
1.56
Kuressaare II
1.64

allows per match

JK Tabasalu
1.89
Kuressaare II
2.56

finishing

JK Tabasalu+0.00on par
Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JK Tabasalu ↓

Kuressaare II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

JK Tabasalu or draw
66%
JK Tabasalu or Kuressaare II
79%
Draw or Kuressaare II
55%

Winning margin

JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
26%
Kuressaare II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
87%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
61%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
34%
Kuressaare II 1+ goals
83%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
52%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
57%
Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JK Tabasalu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

Kuressaare II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JK Tabasalu attack 1.56 + Kuressaare II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.06

Kuressaare II attack 1.64 + JK Tabasalu defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

JK Tabasalu scores more
45%
level
21%
Kuressaare II scores more
34%

JK Tabasalu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JK Tabasalu vs Kuressaare II

Kuressaare II beat JK Tabasalu 2-0 in Esiliiga B on August 21, 2025.

The match was played at Tabasalu Arena in Tabasalu.