KuPS 3–2 Inter Turku: Result & Stats

KuPS

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Inter Turku

11/2/2025

Veikkausliiga · Championship Round - 9Vare Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

KuPS47%

×Draw25%

Inter Turku27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuPSExpected goals in this matchInter Turku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.14

KuPS

1.58

Inter Turku

1.14

KuPS creates 39% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 118 away

1.82

creates per match

1.38

0.89

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

KuPS

1.82

Inter Turku

1.38

allows per match

KuPS

0.89

Inter Turku

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par

Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

Inter Turku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

KuPS or draw

73%

KuPS or Inter Turku

75%

Draw or Inter Turku

53%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+

24%

Inter Turku wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals

79%

KuPS 2+ goals

47%

KuPS 3+ goals

21%

Inter Turku 1+ goals

68%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

32%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)

63%

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.89 · 122 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 1.82 + Inter Turku defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

Inter Turku attack 1.38 + KuPS defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KuPS scores more

47%

level

25%

Inter Turku scores more

27%

KuPS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff