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Inter Turku vs KuPS — Veikkausliiga 2026

Inter Turku
Inter Turku
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
KuPS
KuPS
10/5/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Championship Round - 4Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Inter Turku37%
×Draw26%
KuPS37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku
1.32
KuPS
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 115 away

creates per match

Inter Turku
1.68
KuPS
1.60

allows per match

Inter Turku
1.04
KuPS
0.97

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par
KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

KuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw
63%
Inter Turku or KuPS
74%
Draw or KuPS
63%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+
17%
KuPS wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals
73%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
38%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
15%
KuPS 1+ goals
73%
KuPS 2+ goals
38%
KuPS 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)
50%
KuPS (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 1.68 + KuPS defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.32

KuPS attack 1.60 + Inter Turku defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Inter Turku scores more
37%
level
26%
KuPS scores more
37%

Inter Turku at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Inter Turku 0–3 KuPS

KuPS beat Inter Turku 3-0 in Veikkausliiga on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Turku.