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KuPS vs Inter Turku — Suomen Cup 2018

KuPS
KuPSadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
9/17/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · FinalHelsingin olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KuPS45%
×Draw24%
Inter Turku31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS
1.66
Inter Turku
1.34

KuPS creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

creates per match

KuPS
2.46
Inter Turku
2.23

allows per match

KuPS
0.46
Inter Turku
0.86

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

KuPS or draw
69%
KuPS or Inter Turku
76%
Draw or Inter Turku
55%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+
23%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals
81%
KuPS 2+ goals
49%
KuPS 3+ goals
23%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
74%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
39%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)
59%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 2.46 + Inter Turku defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.66

Inter Turku attack 2.23 + KuPS defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KuPS scores more
45%
level
24%
Inter Turku scores more
31%

KuPS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KuPS vs Inter Turku

KuPS beat Inter Turku 1-0 in Suomen Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Helsingin olympiastadion in Helsingfors.