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KuPS Akatemia vs Kuopion Elo — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
8/14/2023Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 14Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

KuPS Akatemia69%
×Draw18%
Kuopion Elo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS Akatemia
2.38
Kuopion Elo
0.96

KuPS Akatemia creates 148% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia
2.00
Kuopion Elo
1.27

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia
0.64
Kuopion Elo
2.77

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par
Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

Kuopion Elo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw
86%
KuPS Akatemia or Kuopion Elo
82%
Draw or Kuopion Elo
31%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
46%
Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
91%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
68%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
42%
Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
62%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
25%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
83%
Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Kuopion Elo away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 2.00 + Kuopion Elo defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.38

Kuopion Elo attack 1.27 + KuPS Akatemia defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more
69%
level
18%
Kuopion Elo scores more
14%

KuPS Akatemia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "KuPS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KuPS Akatemia vs Kuopion Elo

KuPS Akatemia beat Kuopion Elo 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 14, 2023.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.