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Kuopion Elo vs KuPS Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
5/21/2023Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 4Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kuopion Elo51%
×Draw22%
KuPS Akatemia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuopion Elo
1.91
KuPS Akatemia
1.33

Kuopion Elo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kuopion Elo
2.00
KuPS Akatemia
0.91

allows per match

Kuopion Elo
1.75
KuPS Akatemia
1.82

finishing

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par
KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuopion Elo ↓

KuPS Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kuopion Elo or draw
73%
Kuopion Elo or KuPS Akatemia
78%
Draw or KuPS Akatemia
49%

Winning margin

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
29%
KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
85%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
57%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
30%
KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
74%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
38%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
66%
KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuopion Elo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

KuPS Akatemia away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuopion Elo attack 2.00 + KuPS Akatemia defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

KuPS Akatemia attack 0.91 + Kuopion Elo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kuopion Elo scores more
51%
level
22%
KuPS Akatemia scores more
27%

Kuopion Elo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kuopion Elo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: Kuopion Elo 1–2 KuPS Akatemia

KuPS Akatemia beat Kuopion Elo 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.