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Kupiškis vs Banga — 1 Lyga 2026

Kupiškis
Kupiškis
FT
0 – 1
Banga
Banga
6/30/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 14Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kupiškis21%
×Draw23%
Banga56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kupiškis
1.04
Banga
1.82

Banga creates 75% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kupiškis
1.29
Banga
1.64

allows per match

Kupiškis
2.00
Banga
0.79

finishing

Kupiškis+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kupiškis ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kupiškis or draw
44%
Kupiškis or Banga
77%
Draw or Banga
79%

Winning margin

Kupiškis wins by 2+
8%
Banga wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kupiškis 1+ goals
65%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
28%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
9%
Banga 1+ goals
84%
Banga 2+ goals
54%
Banga 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Kupiškis (draw refunded)
28%
Banga (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kupiškis at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Banga away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kupiškis attack 1.29 + Banga defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.04

Banga attack 1.64 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kupiškis scores more
21%
level
23%
Banga scores more
56%

Banga at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Kupiškis 0–1 Banga

Banga beat Kupiškis 1-0 in 1 Lyga on June 30, 2019.

The match was played at Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis).