Banga 5–1 Kupiškis: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Banga

FT

5 – 1

Kupiškis

10/19/2019

1 Lyga · Round 29Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Banga52%

×Draw21%

Kupiškis27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangaExpected goals in this matchKupiškis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.57

Banga

2.21

Kupiškis

1.57

Banga creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.43

creates per match

2.21

0.93

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Banga

2.43

Kupiškis

2.21

allows per match

Banga

0.93

Kupiškis

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga+0.00on par

Kupiškis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Kupiškis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Banga or draw

73%

Banga or Kupiškis

79%

Draw or Kupiškis

48%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+

31%

Kupiškis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals

89%

Banga 2+ goals

65%

Banga 3+ goals

38%

Kupiškis 1+ goals

79%

Kupiškis 2+ goals

46%

Kupiškis 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)

65%

Kupiškis (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Kupiškis away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 2.43 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kupiškis attack 2.21 + Banga defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Banga scores more

52%

level

21%

Kupiškis scores more

27%

Banga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff