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Kuopion Elo vs Kraft — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
CANC
15:30
Kraft
Kraft
8/3/2025Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 16Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kuopion Elo49%
×Draw21%
Kraft29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuopion Elo
2.10
Kraft
1.59

Kuopion Elo creates 32% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 68 away

creates per match

Kuopion Elo
2.00
Kraft
1.44

allows per match

Kuopion Elo
1.75
Kraft
2.21

finishing

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par
Kraft+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuopion Elo ↓

Kraft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kuopion Elo or draw
71%
Kuopion Elo or Kraft
79%
Draw or Kraft
51%

Winning margin

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
29%
Kraft wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
88%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
62%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
35%
Kraft 1+ goals
80%
Kraft 2+ goals
47%
Kraft 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
63%
Kraft (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuopion Elo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Kraft away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.21 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuopion Elo attack 2.00 + Kraft defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.10

Kraft attack 1.44 + Kuopion Elo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kuopion Elo scores more
49%
level
21%
Kraft scores more
29%

Kuopion Elo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kuopion Elo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kuopion Elo vs Kraft — Match Preview

Kuopion Elo face Kraft on August 3, 2025 in this Kakkonen - Lohko C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kuopion Elo host Kraft at Väre Areena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.