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Kraft vs Kuopion Elo — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Kraft
Kraft
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
9/10/2023Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 18Mosedal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kraft55%
×Draw20%
Kuopion Elo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraft
2.33
Kuopion Elo
1.52

Kraft creates 53% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kraft
1.88
Kuopion Elo
1.27

allows per match

Kraft
1.78
Kuopion Elo
2.77

finishing

Kraft+0.00on par
Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraft ↓

Kuopion Elo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kraft or draw
75%
Kraft or Kuopion Elo
80%
Draw or Kuopion Elo
45%

Winning margin

Kraft wins by 2+
34%
Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kraft 1+ goals
90%
Kraft 2+ goals
67%
Kraft 3+ goals
41%
Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
78%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
45%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kraft (draw refunded)
69%
Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraft at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.78 · 67 matches

Kuopion Elo away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraft attack 1.88 + Kuopion Elo defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.33

Kuopion Elo attack 1.27 + Kraft defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kraft scores more
55%
level
20%
Kuopion Elo scores more
25%

Kraft at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kraft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kraft vs Kuopion Elo

Kraft beat Kuopion Elo 4-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Mosedal in Närpes.