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Kunshan vs Chengdu Better City — League One 2018

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
5/5/2021League OneLeague One · Round 3Jinzhou Binhai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kunshan33%
×Draw25%
Chengdu Better City42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
1.29
Chengdu Better City
1.48

Chengdu Better City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 24 away

creates per match

Kunshan
1.76
Chengdu Better City
2.17

allows per match

Kunshan
0.78
Chengdu Better City
0.83

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Chengdu Better City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
58%
Kunshan or Chengdu Better City
75%
Draw or Chengdu Better City
67%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
14%
Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
72%
Kunshan 2+ goals
37%
Kunshan 3+ goals
14%
Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
77%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
43%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
44%
Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 1.76 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chengdu Better City attack 2.17 + Kunshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kunshan scores more
33%
level
25%
Chengdu Better City scores more
42%

Chengdu Better City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Kunshan 1–1 Chengdu Better City

Kunshan and Chengdu Better City drew 1-1 in League One on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Jinzhou Binhai Sports Center in Jinzhou.