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Chengdu Better City vs Kunshan — League One 2018

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Kunshan
Kunshan
5/30/2021League OneLeague One · Round 8Jinzhou Binhai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Chengdu Better City38%
×Draw26%
Kunshan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
1.39
Kunshan
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 42 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
1.96
Kunshan
1.86

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.88
Kunshan
0.81

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par
Kunshan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Kunshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
63%
Chengdu Better City or Kunshan
74%
Draw or Kunshan
62%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
17%
Kunshan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
75%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
40%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
16%
Kunshan 1+ goals
75%
Kunshan 2+ goals
40%
Kunshan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
51%
Kunshan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Kunshan away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 1.96 + Kunshan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kunshan attack 1.86 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
38%
level
26%
Kunshan scores more
37%

Chengdu Better City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Chengdu Better City 3–3 Kunshan

Chengdu Better City and Kunshan drew 3-3 in League One on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Jinzhou Binhai Sports Center in Jinzhou.