Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kunshan vs BIT — League One 2018

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
3 – 0
BIT
BIT
6/10/2022League OneLeague One · Round 1Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kunshan69%
×Draw19%
BIT12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
2.06
BIT
0.71

Kunshan creates 190% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kunshan
1.76
BIT
0.63

allows per match

Kunshan
0.78
BIT
2.37

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
BIT+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

BIT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
88%
Kunshan or BIT
81%
Draw or BIT
31%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
44%
BIT wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
87%
Kunshan 2+ goals
61%
Kunshan 3+ goals
34%
BIT 1+ goals
51%
BIT 2+ goals
16%
BIT 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
85%
BIT (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

BIT away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 1.76 + BIT defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.06

BIT attack 0.63 + Kunshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Kunshan scores more
69%
level
19%
BIT scores more
12%

Kunshan at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Kunshan 3–0 BIT

Kunshan beat BIT 3-0 in League One on June 10, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base in Nanjing.