Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BIT vs Kunshan — League One 2018

BIT
BIT
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kunshan
Kunshan
9/8/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 10Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

BIT12%
×Draw20%
Kunshan69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BIT
0.70
Kunshan
2.05

Kunshan creates 193% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

creates per match

BIT
0.59
Kunshan
1.86

allows per match

BIT
2.24
Kunshan
0.81

finishing

BIT+0.00on par
Kunshan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BIT ↓

Kunshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–214%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

BIT or draw
31%
BIT or Kunshan
80%
Draw or Kunshan
88%

Winning margin

BIT wins by 2+
3%
Kunshan wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

BIT 1+ goals
50%
BIT 2+ goals
16%
BIT 3+ goals
3%
Kunshan 1+ goals
87%
Kunshan 2+ goals
61%
Kunshan 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

BIT (draw refunded)
15%
Kunshan (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BIT at home — creates 0.59, concedes 2.24 · 34 matches

Kunshan away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BIT attack 0.59 + Kunshan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.70

Kunshan attack 1.86 + BIT defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

BIT scores more
12%
level
20%
Kunshan scores more
69%

Kunshan at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BIT 0 – 0 Kunshan

BIT and Kunshan drew 0-0 in League One on September 8, 2021.

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium in Dalian.