Kun Khalifat FC 1–3 Barau FC: Result & Stats | NPFL

Kun Khalifat FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Barau FC

9/28/2025

NPFL · Round 6Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kun Khalifat FC52%

×Draw31%

Barau FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kun Khalifat FCExpected goals in this matchBarau FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.57

Kun Khalifat FC

1.21

Barau FC

0.57

Kun Khalifat FC creates 112% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.42

creates per match

0.26

0.89

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kun Khalifat FC

1.42

Barau FC

0.26

allows per match

Kun Khalifat FC

0.89

Barau FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par

Barau FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kun Khalifat FC ↓

Barau FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Kun Khalifat FC or draw

83%

Kun Khalifat FC or Barau FC

69%

Draw or Barau FC

48%

Winning margin

Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+

24%

Barau FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals

70%

Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals

34%

Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals

12%

Barau FC 1+ goals

43%

Barau FC 2+ goals

11%

Barau FC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)

75%

Barau FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kun Khalifat FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Barau FC away — creates 0.26, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kun Khalifat FC attack 1.42 + Barau FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Barau FC attack 0.26 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kun Khalifat FC scores more

52%

level

31%

Barau FC scores more

17%

Kun Khalifat FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kun Khalifat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff