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Barau FC vs Kun Khalifat FC — NPFL 2019

Barau FC
Barau FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kun Khalifat FC
Kun Khalifat FC
2/14/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 26Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Barau FC54%
×Draw27%
Kun Khalifat FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barau FC
1.41
Kun Khalifat FC
0.70

Barau FC creates 101% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Barau FC
1.53
Kun Khalifat FC
0.83

allows per match

Barau FC
0.58
Kun Khalifat FC
1.28

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par
Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

Kun Khalifat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw
81%
Barau FC or Kun Khalifat FC
73%
Draw or Kun Khalifat FC
46%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+
27%
Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals
76%
Barau FC 2+ goals
41%
Barau FC 3+ goals
17%
Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals
50%
Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals
16%
Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)
74%
Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Kun Khalifat FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kun Khalifat FC attack 0.83 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Barau FC scores more
54%
level
27%
Kun Khalifat FC scores more
19%

Barau FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Barau FC 1–0 Kun Khalifat FC

Barau FC beat Kun Khalifat FC 1-0 in NPFL on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.