Kumba 0–1 Avion Academy: Result & Stats | Elite Two

Kumba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Avion Academy

3/11/2026

Elite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kumba41%

×Draw27%

Avion Academy32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KumbaExpected goals in this matchAvion Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.12

Kumba

1.32

Avion Academy

1.12

Kumba creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

1.38

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Kumba

1.38

Avion Academy

1.11

allows per match

Kumba

1.13

Avion Academy

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kumba+0.00on par

Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kumba ↓

Avion Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kumba or draw

68%

Kumba or Avion Academy

73%

Draw or Avion Academy

59%

Winning margin

Kumba wins by 2+

19%

Avion Academy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kumba 1+ goals

73%

Kumba 2+ goals

38%

Kumba 3+ goals

15%

Avion Academy 1+ goals

67%

Avion Academy 2+ goals

31%

Avion Academy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kumba (draw refunded)

57%

Avion Academy (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kumba at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kumba attack 1.38 + Avion Academy defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Avion Academy attack 1.11 + Kumba defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kumba scores more

41%

level

27%

Avion Academy scores more

32%

Kumba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kumba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff