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Avion Academy vs Kumba — Elite Two 2020

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
6 – 1
Kumba
Kumba
6/20/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Championship Group - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Avion Academy51%
×Draw26%
Kumba23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
1.52
Kumba
0.92

Avion Academy creates 65% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.48
Kumba
0.73

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.10
Kumba
1.55

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
Kumba+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

Kumba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
77%
Avion Academy or Kumba
74%
Draw or Kumba
49%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
26%
Kumba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
78%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
45%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
20%
Kumba 1+ goals
60%
Kumba 2+ goals
23%
Kumba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
69%
Kumba (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Kumba away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.48 + Kumba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kumba attack 0.73 + Avion Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Avion Academy scores more
51%
level
26%
Kumba scores more
23%

Avion Academy at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avion Academy 6 – 1 Kumba

Avion Academy beat Kumba 6-1 in Elite Two on June 20, 2026.