Kuktosh 0–0 Khosilot Farkhor: Result & Stats

Kuktosh

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Khosilot Farkhor

6/29/2024

Vysshaya Liga · Round 12Stadion Farkhar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kuktosh41%

×Draw26%

Khosilot Farkhor33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuktoshExpected goals in this matchKhosilot Farkhor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.26

Kuktosh

1.44

Khosilot Farkhor

1.26

Kuktosh creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

1.33

creates per match

1.04

1.48

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Kuktosh

1.33

Khosilot Farkhor

1.04

allows per match

Kuktosh

1.48

Khosilot Farkhor

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuktosh+0.00on par

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuktosh ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kuktosh or draw

67%

Kuktosh or Khosilot Farkhor

74%

Draw or Khosilot Farkhor

59%

Winning margin

Kuktosh wins by 2+

20%

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kuktosh 1+ goals

76%

Kuktosh 2+ goals

42%

Kuktosh 3+ goals

18%

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals

72%

Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals

36%

Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kuktosh (draw refunded)

56%

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuktosh at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuktosh attack 1.33 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.04 + Kuktosh defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kuktosh scores more

41%

level

26%

Khosilot Farkhor scores more

33%

Kuktosh at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kuktosh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff