Kuktosh 0–3 Khosilot Farkhor: Result & Stats

Kuktosh

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Khosilot Farkhor

4/6/2023

Vysshaya Liga · Round 2Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kuktosh41%

×Draw25%

Khosilot Farkhor34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuktoshExpected goals in this matchKhosilot Farkhor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.31

Kuktosh

1.47

Khosilot Farkhor

1.31

Kuktosh creates 12% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 51 away

1.39

creates per match

1.04

1.58

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Kuktosh

1.39

Khosilot Farkhor

1.04

allows per match

Kuktosh

1.58

Khosilot Farkhor

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuktosh+0.00on par

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuktosh ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kuktosh or draw

66%

Kuktosh or Khosilot Farkhor

75%

Draw or Khosilot Farkhor

59%

Winning margin

Kuktosh wins by 2+

20%

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kuktosh 1+ goals

77%

Kuktosh 2+ goals

43%

Kuktosh 3+ goals

18%

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals

73%

Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals

38%

Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kuktosh (draw refunded)

55%

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuktosh at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 59 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuktosh attack 1.39 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.04 + Kuktosh defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kuktosh scores more

41%

level

25%

Khosilot Farkhor scores more

34%

Kuktosh at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kuktosh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff